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Stock Market Analysis: 10/07/09

The challenge at present is that last week’s Fed’s decision does make an already precarious situation more precarious. My concern is that investors may draw on this decision as evidence that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has placed some sort of “safety net” below the market, and that the surprising extension of its current policies could spark a short-term speculative “blowoff.” Given the relatively depressed level of implied volatility (which affects the cost of index option premiums), combined with some potential for the Fed decision to provoke a steep, if short-lived speculative response, we added a very small position in out-of-the-money index call options in Strategic Growth Fund late last week. Accordingly to the book, his children will still call the remiser to buy blue chips when market is down. Based on numerous past speculative episodes in the financial markets, we know that financial bubbles have often proceeded in an oscillating pattern featuring increasingly frequent cycles of advance, punctuated by gradually shallower declines reflecting an accelerating eagerness to buy dips.


Do you focus on the enormous gap between the SPY/AGG ratio against the copper/gold ratio and interpret it as boutiques near me s have run too far too fast? Or do you focus on the uptrend in the copper/gold ratio as a sign of positive momentum in global macro economic conditions, with the belief that it is the direction of the copper/gold ratio that matters and not the magnitude of the move? My inner trader, on the other hand, tells me to stay with the momentum until we see signs that the copper/gold ratio starts to roll over. While it’s looking likely, given the remarkable efficacy rates of the COVID-19 vaccines in hand, negative surprises can still happen, and they tend to come up when we, as investors, least expect them. Given that overnight rates have never been zero deep in a U.S. The main thing is the Brokers may have to follow general rules, but they are not bound by the rules that a Regulated Binary Options Broker should be.


Strategic Growth Fund remains fully hedged, with a “staggered strike” position that places the strike prices of its index put options close to present market levels. Copper is bought when economic conditions are better and stock prices are rising. Again, this is emphatically not a forecast, but the conditions for a final wave of speculation may have been created by the Fed’s decision last week, and it leaves us unable to rule out this admittedly hypothetical possibility – particularly in the context of what has been a classic Sornette-type bubble to-date. At the same time, examining market cycles over a century of market history, present conditions cluster among the most negative 2-3% of data points in terms of average return and downside risk. The case for a relief rally in Treasuries (and a corresponding decrease in yields) is built on excessive pessimism already built into the Treasury market, the likelihood that short-term rates controlled by the Fed will stay near zero for a very long time, and the reality that higher yields — and mortgage and auto-loan rates — themselves help brake the economy and could make the central bank less aggressive in stepping back from its stimulus.